Datarite FP&A · software by Datarite Consulting

Demo Foods Ltd - workings and method, 2025-12-31

What happened - the reconciled bridges

REVENUE 2025-01-31..2025-12-31: 1,559,345,152 against budget 1,746,466,571, a adverse variance of -187,121,418 NGN. Largest components: volume on revenue -187,124,127; price on revenue +2,709. All 2 components sum to the variance exactly.
GROSS MARGIN 2025-01-31..2025-12-31: 452,769,759 against budget 556,634,788, a adverse variance of -103,865,029 NGN. Largest components: volume on revenue -187,124,127; volume on cogs materials +100,835,802; unit cost on cogs materials -23,212,874. All 12 components sum to the variance exactly.
EBITDA UNDERLYING 2025-01-31..2025-12-31: 167,868,509 against budget 271,962,780, a adverse variance of -104,094,271 NGN. Largest components: volume on revenue -187,124,127; volume on cogs materials +100,835,802; unit cost on cogs materials -23,212,874. All 18 components sum to the variance exactly.
EBITDA REPORTED 2025-01-31..2025-12-31: 165,118,509 against budget 271,962,780, a adverse variance of -106,844,271 NGN. Largest components: volume on revenue -187,124,127; volume on cogs materials +100,835,802; unit cost on cogs materials -23,212,874. All 19 components sum to the variance exactly.
PROFIT BEFORE TAX 2025-01-31..2025-12-31: 109,861,410 against budget 216,773,756, a adverse variance of -106,912,346 NGN. Largest components: volume on revenue -187,124,127; volume on cogs materials +100,835,802; unit cost on cogs materials -23,212,874. All 23 components sum to the variance exactly.
REVENUE 2025-04-30..2025-12-31: 1,202,666,413 against run rate (average of 2025-01-31..2025-03-31) 1,174,660,885, a favourable variance of 28,005,528 NGN. Largest components: volume on revenue +18,066,717; price on revenue +9,938,812. All 2 components sum to the variance exactly.
GROSS MARGIN 2025-04-30..2025-12-31: 339,673,493 against run rate (average of 2025-01-31..2025-03-31) 345,734,695, a adverse variance of -6,061,202 NGN. Largest components: unit cost on cogs materials -23,590,475; volume on revenue +18,066,717; fx official move on cogs materials +16,632,026. All 12 components sum to the variance exactly.
EBITDA UNDERLYING 2025-04-30..2025-12-31: 125,112,917 against run rate (average of 2025-01-31..2025-03-31) 132,899,010, a adverse variance of -7,786,093 NGN. Largest components: unit cost on cogs materials -23,590,475; volume on revenue +18,066,717; fx official move on cogs materials +16,632,026. All 18 components sum to the variance exactly.
EBITDA REPORTED 2025-04-30..2025-12-31: 122,362,917 against run rate (average of 2025-01-31..2025-03-31) 130,149,010, a adverse variance of -7,786,093 NGN. Largest components: unit cost on cogs materials -23,590,475; volume on revenue +18,066,717; fx official move on cogs materials +16,632,026. All 19 components sum to the variance exactly.
PROFIT BEFORE TAX 2025-04-30..2025-12-31: 81,957,163 against run rate (average of 2025-01-31..2025-03-31) 88,918,190, a adverse variance of -6,961,027 NGN. Largest components: unit cost on cogs materials -23,590,475; volume on revenue +18,066,717; fx official move on cogs materials +16,632,026. All 23 components sum to the variance exactly.

What works with the data supplied

Pack Generic (any business). Trial balance: 12 month(s) (2025-01-31 to 2025-12-31). Budget overlap: 12 month(s). Operational series: volume (12), headcount (12).

Feature	Status	With the data you have	What switches it on
Cost structure & KPI diagnostic	ON	12 month(s) of trial balance	-
Actual vs run rate	ON	12 month(s) of trial balance	-
Actual vs Budget bridge	ON	12 month(s) of trial balance; budget overlaps 12 month(s)	-
Actual vs Prior Year bridge	OFF (year-on-year unavailable until a month and its prior-year month are both present)	0 month(s) with the same month a year earlier	trial balances for the same months a year earlier (13+ months in all)
Price / volume / mix split	ON	volume present	-
Price / volume split against budget	ON	volume present; budget volume present	-
Yield & efficiency variance	OFF (folded into unexplained, flagged)	pack declares none of yield, efficiency; no such dimension in the pack	a pack that declares one of yield, efficiency
Official-vs-effective FX gap as a bridge line	ON	12 FX gap line(s)	-
Seasonality in the outlook	DEGRADED (pack default profile, flagged ASSUMED)	12 month(s) of trial balance	12 more month(s) of trial balance (have 12, need 24)
Driver elasticities from history	DEGRADED (the Generic (any business) pack ships no default elasticities, so drivers are excluded from the driver tree and said so, rather than given a weak number)	12 month(s) of trial balance; 12 month(s) of volume	6 more month(s) of trial balance (have 12, need 18) and 6 more month(s) of volume (have 12, need 18)
Probabilistic outlook (P10 / P50 / P90)	ON	12 month(s) of trial balance	-
Covenant / threshold breach probability	ON	12 month(s) of trial balance; 1 threshold(s) declared	-
Forecast scorecard	DEGRADED (builds - accumulates from first use)	1 forecast cycle(s) stored	1 more forecast cycle(s) inside the app
Decision engine & ledger	ON	12 month(s) of trial balance	-

Figures substituted from the pack - labelled ASSUMED everywhere they appear

Figure	Value	Source	Replaced when
seasonality_monthly_index	1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1	Generic pack: no industry profile exists, so the index is flat. Replaced by the client's own history at 24 months.	replaced automatically once there are 12 more month(s) of trial balance (have 12, need 24)

Every figure in this table is computed from the files named in intake.json; nothing is estimated.

Driver tree

Leverage is arithmetic: a 1% move in the driver moves each line the pack says it moves by 1%.

History-fitted elasticities appear only with enough months; otherwise they are excluded and say why.

Rank	Driver	Latest value	EBITDA per 1%, month (NGN)	Cash per 1%, first month	Cash per 1%, monthly after	History elasticity
1	Average price per unit	1,945.04 currency per unit	1,248,115	-187,217	1,248,115	excluded: only 12 usable month(s) of history; 18 are needed for a defensible slope
2	Cost of sales as a share of revenue	0.76 %	-949,587	-1,026,548	-949,587	excluded: only 12 usable month(s) of history; 18 are needed for a defensible slope
3	Volume	64,169.00 units (as supplied)	298,528	-1,213,765	298,528	excluded: only 12 usable month(s) of history; 18 are needed for a defensible slope
4	Operating expenses as a share of revenue	0.19 %	-242,648	-242,648	-242,648	excluded: only 12 usable month(s) of history; 18 are needed for a defensible slope
5	Headcount	232.00 FTE	-198,498	-205,296	-198,498	excluded: only 12 usable month(s) of history; 18 are needed for a defensible slope
6	Personnel cost per head	85,559.59 currency per FTE	-198,498	-205,296	-198,498	excluded: only 12 usable month(s) of history; 18 are needed for a defensible slope

How each leverage was derived

Volume: a 1% move in Volume moves each line it is declared to move by 1%; EBITDA impact = 0.01 * (+revenue, -cogs_materials, -cogs_labour, -cogs_energy, -cogs_other) at 2025-12-31.
Average price per unit: a 1% move in Average price per unit moves each line it is declared to move by 1%; EBITDA impact = 0.01 * (+revenue) at 2025-12-31.
Cost of sales as a share of revenue: a 1% move in Cost of sales as a share of revenue moves each line it is declared to move by 1%; EBITDA impact = 0.01 * (-cogs_materials, -cogs_labour, -cogs_energy, -cogs_other) at 2025-12-31.
Operating expenses as a share of revenue: a 1% move in Operating expenses as a share of revenue moves each line it is declared to move by 1%; EBITDA impact = 0.01 * (-opex_selling_distribution, -opex_personnel, -opex_admin, -opex_maintenance, -opex_other) at 2025-12-31.
Headcount: a 1% move in Headcount moves each line it is declared to move by 1%; EBITDA impact = 0.01 * (-opex_personnel, -cogs_labour) at 2025-12-31.
Personnel cost per head: a 1% move in Personnel cost per head moves each line it is declared to move by 1%; EBITDA impact = 0.01 * (-opex_personnel, -cogs_labour) at 2025-12-31.

Budget challenge

8 line(s) out of line with history, ranked by the size of the gap. Budget months: 2025-01-31 to 2025-12-31; history: 2025-01-31 to 2025-12-31.

#	Line	Owner	Gap (NGN)	Question	Evidence
1	Revenue	Sales	187,121,418	This line is 12.0% away from its twelve-month run rate. What changes in the business explain the difference?	budget_monthly_avg 145538880.88; actual_monthly_avg 129945429.36; history_months 12
2	Cost of sales - materials	Procurement	-49,532,658	The budget assumes cost of sales at 53.9% of revenue against a trailing 56.7%. What moves it?	budget_ratio_pct 53.89; actual_ratio_pct 56.72
3	Cost of sales - direct labour	Operations	13,162,718	This line is 12.0% away from its twelve-month run rate. What changes in the business explain the difference?	budget_monthly_avg 10237669.45; actual_monthly_avg 9140776.29; history_months 12
4	Cost of sales - energy and fuel	Operations	11,248,999	This line is 12.0% away from its twelve-month run rate. What changes in the business explain the difference?	budget_monthly_avg 8749221.23; actual_monthly_avg 7811804.67; history_months 12
5	Income tax	Finance	6,530,915	This line is 20.0% away from its twelve-month run rate. What changes in the business explain the difference?	budget_monthly_avg 3265457.25; actual_monthly_avg 2721214.38; history_months 12
6	Exceptional and one-off items	Finance	2,750,000	This line is 100.0% away from its twelve-month run rate. What changes in the business explain the difference?	budget_monthly_avg 0.0; actual_monthly_avg -229166.67; history_months 12
7	Cost of sales - other direct	Operations	2,235,921	This line is 12.0% away from its twelve-month run rate. What changes in the business explain the difference?	budget_monthly_avg 1739049.64; actual_monthly_avg 1552722.89; history_months 12
8	Exceptional and one-off items	Finance	229,167	This line is budgeted flat every month while actuals moved between -2,750,000.0 and 0.0. Is it a placeholder?	budget_value 0.0; actual_min -2750000.0; actual_max 0.0

Outlook method

12 months from 2026-01-31; 5,000 simulation(s), seed 42; drivers simulated: volume, price, unit_variable_cost, fixed_cost, fx_rate; seasonality history_one_year; volume x price.

Method: monthly log-changes of each driver drawn from a multivariate normal with zero drift and the covariance of the client's own months (shrinkage 0.542); random walk from the de-seasonalised run rate; cash = opening cash + EBITDA - change in working capital (DSO, DIO, DPO held) - net finance cost - tax; capex and debt movements NOT AVAILABLE from the trial balance.

Correlation matrix:

	volume	price	unit_variable_cost	fixed_cost	fx_rate
volume	1.00	0.12	-0.20	0.11	0.32
price	0.12	1.00	0.19	0.15	-0.05
unit_variable_cost	-0.20	0.19	1.00	0.09	-0.25
fixed_cost	0.11	0.15	0.09	1.00	-0.09
fx_rate	0.32	-0.05	-0.25	-0.09	1.00

Month	Revenue P10	Revenue P50	Revenue P90	EBITDA P10	EBITDA P50	EBITDA P90	Cash P10	Cash P50	Cash P90
2026-01-31	105,710,238	116,743,571	128,813,329	2,146,296	6,263,165	10,510,319	129,553,258	142,222,238	152,878,172
2026-02-28	97,553,915	111,861,012	128,472,786	-549,904	4,866,877	10,886,281	135,270,646	150,993,472	164,369,379
2026-03-31	108,331,315	128,098,361	151,442,579	1,580,878	8,997,308	17,536,995	116,969,501	137,712,905	155,200,153
2026-04-30	110,841,143	133,626,723	162,010,274	1,735,441	10,417,724	21,074,225	113,403,491	137,843,149	158,238,622
2026-05-31	109,330,974	134,256,999	165,646,536	843,127	10,501,984	22,309,744	116,785,958	143,819,700	167,565,878
2026-06-30	104,886,526	132,132,601	166,797,768	-324,323	9,844,000	23,028,695	122,798,479	153,129,808	180,397,665
2026-07-31	99,702,218	128,962,909	165,764,197	-1,847,802	8,840,023	22,517,730	128,889,902	164,497,336	195,213,458
2026-08-31	95,331,218	125,272,997	163,930,693	-3,216,602	7,996,508	22,620,011	133,488,870	174,354,030	209,978,275
2026-09-30	102,153,124	136,644,008	182,269,806	-1,591,114	10,831,257	28,247,881	118,513,079	167,650,372	210,801,632
2026-10-31	104,400,240	143,073,501	193,172,477	-1,266,759	12,121,671	31,573,912	112,067,337	169,145,403	219,587,323
2026-11-30	106,555,968	146,498,980	201,691,548	-1,376,221	13,185,777	34,274,492	109,186,159	173,904,462	231,609,429
2026-12-31	89,798,336	125,092,107	175,453,231	-5,293,307	7,592,535	26,562,829	133,099,193	204,626,093	272,510,080

Threshold minimum_cash (cash above 15,000,000; Board-approved minimum cash balance): probability of breach in any month 0.2%.

Decisions

4 action(s), ranked by expected value per unit of effort. Each is sized from a figure in this run and written to the decision ledger (0 new).

#	Action	Driver	Owner	Expected EBITDA impact (NGN, 12 months)	Effort	Time to effect	Assumption	How we will know
1	Close the volume shortfall against budget on Revenue: NGN 187,124,127 of revenue	unit_volume	Sales	18,712,413 to 56,137,238	high	90 days	the shortfall is demand or execution, not capacity; the budget volume was achievable	monthly volume in the operational upload against the budget volume, over the next three months
2	Test a 1% price move on the highest-leverage driver, Average price per unit: worth NGN 1,248,115 of EBITDA a month	average_price	Sales	7,488,691 to 14,977,382	medium	45 days	volume does not fall by more than the price gain; to be tested on one segment first	average price per unit and volume in the operational upload, next three months, against the trailing three
3	Renegotiate or re-source Cost of sales - materials: the unit cost ran NGN 23,212,874 above budget over the period	cogs_ratio	Procurement	5,803,218 to 11,606,437	medium	60 days	the adverse unit cost is a supplier price effect, not a change in specification or quality	Cost of sales - materials per unit of output in the next three months' trial balances, against the budget unit cost
4	Reduce the official-versus-effective FX gap on Cost of sales - materials: NGN 20,211,435 was paid above the official rate	fx_effective_rate	Treasury	4,042,287 to 10,105,718	high	90 days	a larger share of the currency need can be met at or near the official rate through documented import channels	fx_gap component of the bridge for Cost of sales - materials, month by month, against the period average

Decision ledger

What was recommended, what was expected, what was decided, and what happened.

Raised	Action	Owner	Expected (NGN, 12m)	Decision	30d	90d	180d
2025-12-31	Close the volume shortfall against budget on Revenue: NGN 187,124,127	Sales	18,712,413 to 56,137,238	pending	not yet measurable (0/1)	not yet measurable (0/3)	not yet measurable (0/6)
2025-12-31	Test a 1% price move on the highest-leverage driver, Average price per	Sales	7,488,691 to 14,977,382	pending	not yet measurable (0/1)	not yet measurable (0/3)	not yet measurable (0/6)
2025-12-31	Renegotiate or re-source Cost of sales - materials: the unit cost ran	Procurement	5,803,218 to 11,606,437	pending	not yet measurable (0/1)	not yet measurable (0/3)	not yet measurable (0/6)
2025-12-31	Reduce the official-versus-effective FX gap on Cost of sales - materia	Treasury	4,042,287 to 10,105,718	pending	not yet measurable (0/1)	not yet measurable (0/3)	not yet measurable (0/6)

4 recommendation(s) await a decision. Record one with python tools/dev/record_decision.py --as-of <period> --id <action id> --decision adopted|rejected|deferred --reason "..." or in intake.yaml under decisions_taken.

Forecast scorecard

1 forecast cycle(s) stored; 0 graded (0 forecast-months with an actual). The scorecard is still building - it accumulates from first use.

No calibration applied: 0 graded cycle(s); 2 needed before the fan is calibrated.

Press Ctrl+P to print this brief or save it as a PDF.

Generated by Datarite FP&A. Every figure derives from the files uploaded for this run and carries its formula in the run record. Outlook figures are simulations with a stated method, not commitments. Operational analysis only — not advice on investments, tax or legal matters.