Board pack · 2025-12-31

FY2025 EBITDA 167.9m, 104.1m behind budget: volume -59.6m, unit cost -23.2m.

Period

Key figures

Revenue

124.8m

BELOW BUDGET BY 15.0M - 10.7%

EBITDA

5.9m

BELOW BUDGET BY 8.2M - 58.1%

EBITDA %

4.8%

BELOW BUDGET BY 5.4 PTS

Cash

127.8m

VS BUDGET: NOT AVAILABLE

Gross margin %

23.9%

BELOW BUDGET BY 3.1 PTS

2025-12: EBITDA is the tile furthest from budget at -58%.

Details

Revenue

formula	revenue
inputs	revenue: 124.8m
latest	124.8m
unit	currency
budget	139.8m
months	Jan 25 116.7m\|Feb 25 112.1m\|Mar 25 128.0m\|Apr 25 133.6m\|May 25 134.3m\|Jun 25 132.5m\|Jul 25 128.5m\|Aug 25 124.6m\|Sep 25 136.1m\|Oct 25 142.3m\|Nov 25 146.0m\|Dec 25 124.8m

EBITDA

formula	ebitda
inputs	ebitda: 5.9m
latest	5.9m
unit	currency
budget	14.2m
months	Jan 25 15.6m\|Feb 25 11.5m\|Mar 25 15.7m\|Apr 25 17.2m\|May 25 16.3m\|Jun 25 12.9m\|Jul 25 15.1m\|Aug 25 10.9m\|Sep 25 16.9m\|Oct 25 15.4m\|Nov 25 14.5m\|Dec 25 5.9m

EBITDA %

formula	safe_div(ebitda, revenue)
inputs	revenue: 124.8m ebitda: 5.9m
latest	0.04763
unit	%
budget	0.1015
months	Jan 25 13.3%\|Feb 25 10.3%\|Mar 25 12.3%\|Apr 25 12.9%\|May 25 12.2%\|Jun 25 9.7%\|Jul 25 11.7%\|Aug 25 8.7%\|Sep 25 12.4%\|Oct 25 10.8%\|Nov 25 10.0%\|Dec 25 4.8%

Cash

formula	cash
inputs	cash: 127.8m
latest	127.8m
unit	currency
months	Jan 25 30.8m\|Feb 25 44.1m\|Mar 25 36.2m\|Apr 25 43.1m\|May 25 54.5m\|Jun 25 66.0m\|Jul 25 81.2m\|Aug 25 93.7m\|Sep 25 89.2m\|Oct 25 93.3m\|Nov 25 99.6m\|Dec 25 127.8m

Gross margin %

formula	safe_div(gross_margin, revenue)
inputs	gross margin: 29.9m revenue: 124.8m
latest	0.2392
unit	%
budget	0.2703
months	Jan 25 33.0%\|Feb 25 31.7%\|Mar 25 30.6%\|Apr 25 30.5%\|May 25 29.7%\|Jun 25 28.3%\|Jul 25 29.7%\|Aug 25 27.5%\|Sep 25 29.4%\|Oct 25 27.7%\|Nov 25 27.3%\|Dec 25 23.9%

Table view

KPI	Latest	Delta vs budget (NGN)	Delta %	Note
Revenue	124.8m	-15.0m	-10.7%	-
EBITDA	5.9m	-8.2m	-58.1%	-
EBITDA %	4.8 %	-5.4%	-53.1%	-
Cash	127.8m	-	-	-
Gross margin %	23.9 %	-3.1%	-11.5%	-

Budget at a glanceFY2026, the three statements in nine lines

NGN'm	2026Jan	2026Feb	2026Mar	2026Apr	2026May	2026Jun	2026Jul	2026Aug	2026Sep	2026Oct	2026Nov	2026Dec	Year
Revenue	132.3	127.1	145.1	151.5	152.3	150.2	145.8	141.2	154.4	161.3	165.5	141.5	1,768.3
EBITDA	9.6	8.2	13.1	14.8	15.1	14.5	13.3	12.0	15.6	17.5	18.7	12.1	164.5
Profit before tax	5.2	3.8	8.7	10.5	10.7	10.2	9.0	7.8	11.4	13.3	14.5	7.9	112.8
Net income	3.6	2.7	6.1	7.3	7.5	7.1	6.3	5.5	8.0	9.3	10.1	5.6	79.2
Cash from operations	(3.2)	12.2	(12.7)	2.7	9.7	12.8	14.8	14.1	(4.9)	3.9	8.1	37.9	95.3
Closing cash	120.6	128.7	112.0	110.7	116.4	125.2	136.0	146.1	137.2	137.1	141.1	175.0	175.0
Total assets	656.8	654.6	670.7	680.6	687.1	691.4	693.2	694.3	709.1	721.4	732.7	721.3	721.3
Net debt	8.0	(1.6)	13.6	13.4	6.2	(4.1)	(16.4)	(28.0)	(20.6)	(22.0)	(27.5)	(62.9)	(62.9)
Equity	400.9	403.5	409.6	416.9	424.3	431.4	437.7	443.1	451.0	460.3	470.4	475.9	475.9

NGN'm	2026Q1	2026Q2	2026Q3	2026Q4	Year
Revenue	404.5	454.1	441.4	468.4	1,768.3
EBITDA	30.9	44.4	40.9	48.3	164.5
Profit before tax	17.7	31.4	28.1	35.7	112.8
Net income	12.4	22.0	19.7	25.0	79.2
Cash from operations	(3.8)	25.1	24.0	49.9	95.3
Closing cash	112.0	125.2	137.2	175.0	175.0
Total assets	670.7	691.4	709.1	721.3	721.3
Net debt	13.6	(4.1)	(20.6)	(62.9)	(62.9)
Equity	409.6	431.4	451.0	475.9	475.9

EBITDA bridgebudget to actual, 2025-01-31 to 2025-12-31

volume and unit cost explain 80% of the 104.1m adverse; every component reconciles.

Details

price

total	2.7k
revenue	2.7k · driver average_price · owner Sales sum over months of [(A/Va - B/Vb) * Va]

volume

total	-59.6m
revenue	-187.1m · driver unit_volume · owner Sales sum over months of [(Va - Vb) * B/Vb]
cogs materials	100.8m · driver unit_volume · owner Procurement sum over months of [-B * (Va/Vb - 1)]
cogs labour	13.2m · driver unit_volume · owner Operations sum over months of [-B * (Va/Vb - 1)]
cogs energy	11.2m · driver unit_volume · owner Operations sum over months of [-B * (Va/Vb - 1)]
cogs other	2.2m · driver unit_volume · owner Operations sum over months of [-B * (Va/Vb - 1)]

total	-21.0m
fx official move: cogs materials	-802.7k · driver fx_official_rate · owner Treasury sum over months of [-F * (Oa - Rb)]
fx gap: cogs materials	-20.2m · driver fx_effective_rate · owner Treasury sum over months of [-F * (Ea - Oa)] - what was paid above the official rate
note	two effects, one bar: the official rate moving between budget and actual, which is the market and Treasury's to hedge; and the gap paid above the official window, which is execution and somebody's to close

unit cost

total	-23.2m
cogs materials	-23.2m · driver cogs_ratio · owner Procurement sum over months of [-(A - B * Va/Vb) - fx] - cost per unit; the pack declares no quantity x price split for this line, so inflation, efficiency and yield are not separated
cogs labour	-198 · driver cogs_ratio · owner Operations sum over months of [-(A - B * Va/Vb) - fx] - cost per unit; the pack declares no quantity x price split for this line, so inflation, efficiency and yield are not separated
cogs energy	-167.6 · driver cogs_ratio · owner Operations sum over months of [-(A - B * Va/Vb) - fx] - cost per unit; the pack declares no quantity x price split for this line, so inflation, efficiency and yield are not separated
cogs other	-32 · driver cogs_ratio · owner Operations sum over months of [-(A - B * Va/Vb) - fx] - cost per unit; the pack declares no quantity x price split for this line, so inflation, efficiency and yield are not separated

other

total	-19.4k
other income	-19.4k · owner Finance sum over months of [A - B]

spend

total	-209.8k
opex selling distribution	159.8k · driver opex_ratio · owner Sales sum over months of [-(A - B)]
opex personnel	-348.2k · driver opex_ratio · owner HR sum over months of [-(A - B)]
opex admin	194.3k · driver opex_ratio · owner Finance sum over months of [-(A - B)]
opex maintenance	-201.4k · driver opex_ratio · owner Operations sum over months of [-(A - B)]
opex other	-14.3k · driver opex_ratio · owner Finance sum over months of [-(A - B)]

budget

note	budget for 2025-01-31..2025-12-31

Actual

note	EBITDA (underlying), actuals for 2025-01-31 to 2025-12-31

Table view

Component	NGN	Direction
Budget	272.0m	total
volume	-59.6m	adverse
unit_cost	-23.2m	adverse
fx	-21.0m	adverse
spend	-209.8k	adverse
other	-19.4k	adverse
price	2.7k	favourable
Actual	167.9m	total

Driver leverageEBITDA impact per 1% move, per month

Move %1% is the sample; type any move to see its impact

A 1% move in average price per unit is worth 1.2m of EBITDA a month, 1.3x the next driver.

Details

Average price per unit

latest value	1.9k
unit	currency per unit
formula	safe_div(revenue, volume)
moves	revenue
ebitda per 1pct month	1.2m
ebitda per 1pct year	15.0m
cash per 1pct first month	-187.2k
cash per 1pct monthly	1.2m
derivation	a 1% move in Average price per unit moves each line it is declared to move by 1%; EBITDA impact = 0.01 * (+revenue) at 2025-12-31
inputs	revenue: 124.8m
history elasticity	only 12 usable month(s) of history; 18 are needed for a defensible slope

Cost of sales as a share of revenue

latest value	0.7608
unit	%
formula	safe_div(cogs, revenue)
moves	cogs_materials\|cogs_labour\|cogs_energy\|cogs_other
ebitda per 1pct month	-949.6k
ebitda per 1pct year	-11.4m
cash per 1pct first month	-1.0m
cash per 1pct monthly	-949.6k
derivation	a 1% move in Cost of sales as a share of revenue moves each line it is declared to move by 1%; EBITDA impact = 0.01 * (-cogs_materials, -cogs_labour, -cogs_energy, -cogs_other) at 2025-12-31
inputs	cogs materials: 77.6m cogs labour: 8.4m cogs energy: 7.5m cogs other: 1.5m
history elasticity	only 12 usable month(s) of history; 18 are needed for a defensible slope

Volume

latest value	64.2k
unit	units (as supplied)
formula	volume
moves	revenue\|cogs_materials\|cogs_labour\|cogs_energy\|cogs_other
ebitda per 1pct month	298.5k
ebitda per 1pct year	3.6m
cash per 1pct first month	-1.2m
cash per 1pct monthly	298.5k
derivation	a 1% move in Volume moves each line it is declared to move by 1%; EBITDA impact = 0.01 * (+revenue, -cogs_materials, -cogs_labour, -cogs_energy, -cogs_other) at 2025-12-31
inputs	revenue: 124.8m cogs materials: 77.6m cogs labour: 8.4m cogs energy: 7.5m cogs other: 1.5m
history elasticity	only 12 usable month(s) of history; 18 are needed for a defensible slope

Operating expenses as a share of revenue

latest value	0.1944
unit	%
formula	safe_div(opex, revenue)
moves	opex_selling_distribution\|opex_personnel\|opex_admin\|opex_maintenance\|opex_other
ebitda per 1pct month	-242.6k
ebitda per 1pct year	-2.9m
cash per 1pct first month	-242.6k
cash per 1pct monthly	-242.6k
derivation	a 1% move in Operating expenses as a share of revenue moves each line it is declared to move by 1%; EBITDA impact = 0.01 * (-opex_selling_distribution, -opex_personnel, -opex_admin, -opex_maintenance, -opex_other) at 2025-12-31
inputs	opex selling distribution: 6.2m opex personnel: 11.5m opex admin: 3.5m opex maintenance: 2.5m opex other: 630.4k
history elasticity	only 12 usable month(s) of history; 18 are needed for a defensible slope

Headcount

latest value	232
unit	FTE
formula	headcount
moves	opex_personnel\|cogs_labour
ebitda per 1pct month	-198.5k
ebitda per 1pct year	-2.4m
cash per 1pct first month	-205.3k
cash per 1pct monthly	-198.5k
derivation	a 1% move in Headcount moves each line it is declared to move by 1%; EBITDA impact = 0.01 * (-opex_personnel, -cogs_labour) at 2025-12-31
inputs	opex personnel: 11.5m cogs labour: 8.4m
history elasticity	only 12 usable month(s) of history; 18 are needed for a defensible slope

Personnel cost per head

latest value	85.6k
unit	currency per FTE
formula	safe_div(opex_personnel + cogs_labour, headcount)
moves	opex_personnel\|cogs_labour
ebitda per 1pct month	-198.5k
ebitda per 1pct year	-2.4m
cash per 1pct first month	-205.3k
cash per 1pct monthly	-198.5k
derivation	a 1% move in Personnel cost per head moves each line it is declared to move by 1%; EBITDA impact = 0.01 * (-opex_personnel, -cogs_labour) at 2025-12-31
inputs	opex personnel: 11.5m cogs labour: 8.4m
history elasticity	only 12 usable month(s) of history; 18 are needed for a defensible slope

Table view

Rank	Driver	EBITDA per 1% (NGN/month)
1	Average price per unit	1.2m
2	Cost of sales as a share of revenue	-949.6k
3	Volume	298.5k
4	Operating expenses as a share of revenue	-242.6k
5	Headcount	-198.5k
6	Personnel cost per head	-198.5k

Operations

Volume

64,169units

BELOW BUDGET BY 7.7K - 10.7%

Headcount

232FTE

VS BUDGET: NOT AVAILABLE

Volume 64,169 units in 2025-12, -11% against the budget's own volume.

Details

Volume

latest	64,169 units
budget	71,869
status	present
sites	Ikeja, Kano
files	ops_Ikeja_2025.csv, ops_Kano_2025.xlsx
site roll up	sum
switches on	8 feature(s) - see the capability matrix under Workings
months	Jan 25 62.5k\|Feb 25 60.3k\|Mar 25 68.1k\|Apr 25 71.1k\|May 25 71.5k\|Jun 25 70.4k\|Jul 25 68.5k\|Aug 25 65.3k\|Sep 25 71.2k\|Oct 25 74.2k\|Nov 25 75.0k\|Dec 25 64.2k

Headcount

latest	232 FTE
budget	NOT AVAILABLE
status	present
sites	Ikeja, Kano
files	ops_Ikeja_2025.csv, ops_Kano_2025.xlsx
site roll up	sum
switches on	5 feature(s) - see the capability matrix under Workings
months	Jan 25 222.0\|Feb 25 223.0\|Mar 25 223.0\|Apr 25 223.0\|May 25 223.0\|Jun 25 225.0\|Jul 25 227.0\|Aug 25 228.0\|Sep 25 228.0\|Oct 25 228.0\|Nov 25 230.0\|Dec 25 232.0

Table view

Measure	Latest	Delta vs budget	Delta %	Sites	Status
Volume	64,169 units	-7.7k	-10.7%	Ikeja, Kano	present
Headcount	232 FTE	-	-	Ikeja, Kano	present

Cost to serve

NGN 1,857.96 to serve one unit; materials moved furthest against its base.

Details

Materials

per unit	1.2k
base per unit	1.1k
share of cost to serve	65.1%
total for the month	77.6m
owner	Procurement
formula	line value / volume for 2025-12-31; base is the mean of 2025-09-30, 2025-10-31, 2025-11-30

Personnel

per unit	178.6
base per unit	150.8
share of cost to serve	9.6%
total for the month	11.5m
owner	HR
formula	line value / volume for 2025-12-31; base is the mean of 2025-09-30, 2025-10-31, 2025-11-30

Direct labour

per unit	130.7
base per unit	136.9
share of cost to serve	7.0%
total for the month	8.4m
owner	Operations
formula	line value / volume for 2025-12-31; base is the mean of 2025-09-30, 2025-10-31, 2025-11-30

Energy and fuel

per unit	117.6
base per unit	112.9
share of cost to serve	6.3%
total for the month	7.5m
owner	Operations
formula	line value / volume for 2025-12-31; base is the mean of 2025-09-30, 2025-10-31, 2025-11-30

Selling and distribution

per unit	96.72
base per unit	92.22
share of cost to serve	5.2%
total for the month	6.2m
owner	Sales
formula	line value / volume for 2025-12-31; base is the mean of 2025-09-30, 2025-10-31, 2025-11-30

General and administrative

per unit	54.45
base per unit	49.08
share of cost to serve	2.9%
total for the month	3.5m
owner	Finance
formula	line value / volume for 2025-12-31; base is the mean of 2025-09-30, 2025-10-31, 2025-11-30

Repairs and maintenance

per unit	38.52
base per unit	32.56
share of cost to serve	2.1%
total for the month	2.5m
owner	Operations
formula	line value / volume for 2025-12-31; base is the mean of 2025-09-30, 2025-10-31, 2025-11-30

Other direct cost

per unit	22.6
base per unit	22.78
share of cost to serve	1.2%
total for the month	1.5m
owner	Operations
formula	line value / volume for 2025-12-31; base is the mean of 2025-09-30, 2025-10-31, 2025-11-30

Other operating expenses

per unit	9.825
base per unit	8.929
share of cost to serve	0.5%
total for the month	630.4k
owner	Finance
formula	line value / volume for 2025-12-31; base is the mean of 2025-09-30, 2025-10-31, 2025-11-30

Table view

Cost pool	NGN/unit	Base	Total NGN	Share	Owner
Materials	1,208.9	1,110.7	77.6m	65.1%	Procurement
Personnel	178.6	150.8	11.5m	9.6%	HR
Direct labour	130.7	136.9	8.4m	7.0%	Operations
Energy and fuel	117.6	112.9	7.5m	6.3%	Operations
Selling and distribution	96.7	92.2	6.2m	5.2%	Sales
General and administrative	54.5	49.1	3.5m	2.9%	Finance
Repairs and maintenance	38.5	32.6	2.5m	2.1%	Operations
Other direct cost	22.6	22.8	1.5m	1.2%	Operations
Other operating expenses	9.8	8.9	630.4k	0.5%	Finance

Period

Budget at a glanceFY2026, the three statements in nine lines

NGN'm	2026Jan	2026Feb	2026Mar	2026Apr	2026May	2026Jun	2026Jul	2026Aug	2026Sep	2026Oct	2026Nov	2026Dec	Year
Revenue	132.3	127.1	145.1	151.5	152.3	150.2	145.8	141.2	154.4	161.3	165.5	141.5	1,768.3
EBITDA	9.6	8.2	13.1	14.8	15.1	14.5	13.3	12.0	15.6	17.5	18.7	12.1	164.5
Profit before tax	5.2	3.8	8.7	10.5	10.7	10.2	9.0	7.8	11.4	13.3	14.5	7.9	112.8
Net income	3.6	2.7	6.1	7.3	7.5	7.1	6.3	5.5	8.0	9.3	10.1	5.6	79.2
Cash from operations	(3.2)	12.2	(12.7)	2.7	9.7	12.8	14.8	14.1	(4.9)	3.9	8.1	37.9	95.3
Closing cash	120.6	128.7	112.0	110.7	116.4	125.2	136.0	146.1	137.2	137.1	141.1	175.0	175.0
Total assets	656.8	654.6	670.7	680.6	687.1	691.4	693.2	694.3	709.1	721.4	732.7	721.3	721.3
Net debt	8.0	(1.6)	13.6	13.4	6.2	(4.1)	(16.4)	(28.0)	(20.6)	(22.0)	(27.5)	(62.9)	(62.9)
Equity	400.9	403.5	409.6	416.9	424.3	431.4	437.7	443.1	451.0	460.3	470.4	475.9	475.9

NGN'm	2026Q1	2026Q2	2026Q3	2026Q4	Year
Revenue	404.5	454.1	441.4	468.4	1,768.3
EBITDA	30.9	44.4	40.9	48.3	164.5
Profit before tax	17.7	31.4	28.1	35.7	112.8
Net income	12.4	22.0	19.7	25.0	79.2
Cash from operations	(3.8)	25.1	24.0	49.9	95.3
Closing cash	112.0	125.2	137.2	175.0	175.0
Total assets	670.7	691.4	709.1	721.3	721.3
Net debt	13.6	(4.1)	(20.6)	(62.9)	(62.9)
Equity	409.6	431.4	451.0	475.9	475.9

NGN'm	2026	Year
Revenue	1,768.3	1,768.3
EBITDA	164.5	164.5
Profit before tax	112.8	112.8
Net income	79.2	79.2
Cash from operations	95.3	95.3
Closing cash	175.0	175.0
Total assets	721.3	721.3
Net debt	(62.9)	(62.9)
Equity	475.9	475.9

FY2026: net income 79.2m, closing cash 175.0m, net debt -62.9m - the three statements articulate.

Details

How the balance sheet and cash flow are built

working capital	receivables, inventory and payables at the client's own days
depreciation	straight line over the remaining useful life, from the asset schedule
finance cost	cost of debt on the average balance, from the debt schedule
tax	profit before tax at the applicable rate, from the tax schedule
cash	the indirect method - cash is the output, never a plug
note	every schedule and its basis is in the fold under the budget statement

What the three statements say together

Ratio	2026Jan	2026Feb	2026Mar	2026Apr	2026May	2026Jun	2026Jul	2026Aug	2026Sep	2026Oct	2026Nov	2026Dec	FY
Gross margingross margin / revenue	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%
EBITDA marginebitda / revenue	7.3%	6.4%	9.0%	9.8%	9.9%	9.6%	9.1%	8.5%	10.1%	10.9%	11.3%	8.6%	9.3%
Net marginnet income / revenue	2.7%	2.1%	4.2%	4.9%	4.9%	4.7%	4.3%	3.9%	5.2%	5.8%	6.1%	3.9%	4.5%
Cash conversioncash from operations / ebitda	-33.4%	148.4%	-97.1%	17.9%	64.3%	88.4%	111.9%	116.7%	-31.5%	22.3%	43.3%	312.8%	57.9%
Interest coverebit / finance cost	4.7x	3.7x	7.4x	8.9x	9.1x	8.8x	8.0x	7.1x	10.1x	11.8x	12.9x	7.6x	8.3x
Net debt to EBITDA (annualised)borrowings less cash / ebitda	0.1x	-0.0x	0.1x	0.1x	0.0x	-0.0x	-0.1x	-0.2x	-0.1x	-0.1x	-0.1x	-0.4x	-0.4x
Return on capital employed (annualised)ebit / equity plus borrowings	14.5%	11.3%	22.2%	25.9%	26.1%	24.6%	21.8%	19.0%	26.4%	30.0%	31.9%	18.4%	21.5%
Current ratiocurrent assets / current liabilities	2.8x	2.8x	2.7x	2.7x	2.8x	2.8x	2.9x	3.0x	2.9x	2.9x	2.9x	3.2x	3.2x
Days sales outstandingreceivables / revenue	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	34
Days inventoryinventory / cogs	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	29
Days payablepayables / cogs	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	26
Cash conversion cycledays sales + days inventory - days payable	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	36

Ratio	2026Q1	2026Q2	2026Q3	2026Q4	FY
Gross margingross margin / revenue	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%
EBITDA marginebitda / revenue	7.6%	9.8%	9.3%	10.3%	9.3%
Net marginnet income / revenue	3.1%	4.8%	4.5%	5.3%	4.5%
Cash conversioncash from operations / ebitda	-12.2%	56.6%	58.6%	103.3%	57.9%
Interest coverebit / finance cost	5.3x	8.9x	8.4x	10.7x	8.3x
Net debt to EBITDA (annualised)borrowings less cash / ebitda	0.1x	-0.0x	-0.1x	-0.3x	-0.4x
Return on capital employed (annualised)ebit / equity plus borrowings	15.9%	25.2%	22.2%	26.5%	21.5%
Current ratiocurrent assets / current liabilities	2.7x	2.8x	2.9x	3.2x	3.2x
Days sales outstandingreceivables / revenue	38	35	37	32	34
Days inventoryinventory / cogs	32	30	31	27	29
Days payablepayables / cogs	29	27	28	25	26
Cash conversion cycledays sales + days inventory - days payable	41	38	40	34	36

Ratio	2026	FY
Gross margingross margin / revenue	27.7%	27.7%
EBITDA marginebitda / revenue	9.3%	9.3%
Net marginnet income / revenue	4.5%	4.5%
Cash conversioncash from operations / ebitda	57.9%	57.9%
Interest coverebit / finance cost	8.3x	8.3x
Net debt to EBITDA (annualised)borrowings less cash / ebitda	-0.4x	-0.4x
Return on capital employed (annualised)ebit / equity plus borrowings	21.5%	21.5%
Current ratiocurrent assets / current liabilities	3.2x	3.2x
Days sales outstandingreceivables / revenue	34	34
Days inventoryinventory / cogs	29	29
Days payablepayables / cogs	26	26
Cash conversion cycledays sales + days inventory - days payable	36	36

Budget in fullFY2026: income statement, balance sheet and cash flow

Abridged

NGN'm	2026Jan	2026Feb	2026Mar	2026Apr	2026May	2026Jun	2026Jul	2026Aug	2026Sep	2026Oct	2026Nov	2026Dec	Total
Revenue	132.3	127.1	145.1	151.5	152.3	150.2	145.8	141.2	154.4	161.3	165.5	141.5	1,768.3
Other operating income	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	3.6
Materials	77.3	74.3	84.8	88.6	89.0	87.8	85.2	82.6	90.2	94.3	96.8	82.7	1,033.7
Direct labour	9.1	8.7	9.9	10.4	10.4	10.3	10.0	9.7	10.6	11.1	11.4	9.7	121.2
Energy and fuel	7.7	7.4	8.5	8.9	8.9	8.8	8.5	8.3	9.0	9.4	9.7	8.3	103.4
Other direct cost	1.5	1.5	1.7	1.8	1.8	1.7	1.7	1.6	1.8	1.9	1.9	1.6	20.6
Cost of sales	95.7	91.9	104.9	109.6	110.2	108.6	105.4	102.2	111.6	116.7	119.7	102.4	1,278.9
Gross margin	36.6	35.2	40.2	41.9	42.2	41.6	40.3	39.1	42.7	44.7	45.8	39.2	489.4
Gross margin %	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%
Selling and distribution	7.3	7.3	7.3	7.3	7.3	7.3	7.3	7.3	7.3	7.3	7.3	7.3	87.6
Personnel	12.7	12.7	12.7	12.7	12.7	12.7	12.7	12.7	12.7	12.7	12.7	12.7	152.9
General and administrative	3.9	3.9	3.9	3.9	3.9	3.9	3.9	3.9	3.9	3.9	3.9	3.9	47.2
Repairs and maintenance	2.7	2.7	2.7	2.7	2.7	2.7	2.7	2.7	2.7	2.7	2.7	2.7	32.6
Other operating expenses	0.6	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.8	0.8	0.7	8.3
Operating expenses	27.3	27.3	27.4	27.4	27.4	27.4	27.4	27.4	27.4	27.4	27.5	27.4	328.6
EBITDA	9.6	8.2	13.1	14.8	15.1	14.5	13.3	12.0	15.6	17.5	18.7	12.1	164.5
EBITDA %	7.3%	6.4%	9.0%	9.8%	9.9%	9.6%	9.1%	8.5%	10.1%	10.9%	11.3%	8.6%	9.3%
Depreciation and amortisation	3.2	3.2	3.2	3.2	3.2	3.2	3.2	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	37.9
EBIT	6.4	5.0	9.9	11.7	11.9	11.3	10.1	8.9	12.5	14.4	15.5	9.0	126.6
Finance cost	1.4	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	15.3
Finance income	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	1.6
Profit before tax	5.2	3.8	8.7	10.5	10.7	10.2	9.0	7.8	11.4	13.3	14.5	7.9	112.8
Income tax	1.5	1.1	2.6	3.1	3.2	3.0	2.7	2.3	3.4	4.0	4.3	2.4	33.7
Net income	3.6	2.7	6.1	7.3	7.5	7.1	6.3	5.5	8.0	9.3	10.1	5.6	79.2

NGN'm	2026Q1	2026Q2	2026Q3	2026Q4	Total
Revenue	404.5	454.1	441.4	468.4	1,768.3
Other operating income	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	3.6
Materials	236.4	265.4	258.0	273.8	1,033.7
Direct labour	27.7	31.1	30.3	32.1	121.2
Energy and fuel	23.6	26.5	25.8	27.4	103.4
Other direct cost	4.7	5.3	5.1	5.4	20.6
Cost of sales	292.5	328.4	319.2	338.8	1,278.9
Gross margin	112.0	125.7	122.2	129.6	489.4
Gross margin %	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%
Selling and distribution	21.9	21.9	21.9	21.9	87.6
Personnel	38.2	38.2	38.2	38.2	152.9
General and administrative	11.8	11.8	11.8	11.8	47.2
Repairs and maintenance	8.2	8.2	8.2	8.2	32.6
Other operating expenses	1.9	2.1	2.1	2.2	8.3
Operating expenses	82.0	82.2	82.1	82.3	328.6
EBITDA	30.9	44.4	40.9	48.3	164.5
EBITDA %	7.6%	9.8%	9.3%	10.3%	9.3%
Depreciation and amortisation	9.6	9.5	9.4	9.4	37.9
EBIT	21.3	34.9	31.5	38.9	126.6
Finance cost	4.0	3.9	3.8	3.6	15.3
Finance income	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	1.6
Profit before tax	17.7	31.4	28.1	35.7	112.8
Income tax	5.3	9.4	8.4	10.7	33.7
Net income	12.4	22.0	19.7	25.0	79.2

NGN'm	2026	Total
Revenue	1,768.3	1,768.3
Other operating income	3.6	3.6
Materials	1,033.7	1,033.7
Direct labour	121.2	121.2
Energy and fuel	103.4	103.4
Other direct cost	20.6	20.6
Cost of sales	1,278.9	1,278.9
Gross margin	489.4	489.4
Gross margin %	27.7%	27.7%
Selling and distribution	87.6	87.6
Personnel	152.9	152.9
General and administrative	47.2	47.2
Repairs and maintenance	32.6	32.6
Other operating expenses	8.3	8.3
Operating expenses	328.6	328.6
EBITDA	164.5	164.5
EBITDA %	9.3%	9.3%
Depreciation and amortisation	37.9	37.9
EBIT	126.6	126.6
Finance cost	15.3	15.3
Finance income	1.6	1.6
Profit before tax	112.8	112.8
Income tax	33.7	33.7
Net income	79.2	79.2

NGN'm	2026Jan	2026Feb	2026Mar	2026Apr	2026May	2026Jun	2026Jul	2026Aug	2026Sep	2026Oct	2026Nov	2026Dec	Year
Cash and bank	120.6	128.7	112.0	110.7	116.4	125.2	136.0	146.1	137.2	137.1	141.1	175.0	175.0
Trade receivables	152.1	146.1	166.9	174.3	175.2	172.8	167.6	162.4	177.5	185.5	190.4	162.8	162.8
Inventory	94.1	90.4	103.2	107.8	108.4	106.9	103.7	100.5	109.8	114.8	117.8	100.7	100.7
Other current assets	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1
Current assets	369.9	368.4	385.2	395.8	402.9	407.8	410.4	412.0	427.5	440.4	452.4	441.6	441.6
Property, plant and equipment	286.9	286.2	285.5	284.8	284.2	283.5	282.9	282.2	281.6	280.9	280.3	279.7	279.7
Other non-current assets	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Non-current assets	286.9	286.2	285.5	284.8	284.2	283.5	282.9	282.2	281.6	280.9	280.3	279.7	279.7
Total assets	656.8	654.6	670.7	680.6	687.1	691.4	693.2	694.3	709.1	721.4	732.7	721.3	721.3
Trade payables	85.0	81.7	93.3	97.4	97.9	96.5	93.7	90.8	99.2	103.7	106.4	91.0	91.0
Short-term borrowings	7.5	7.4	7.3	7.2	7.2	7.1	7.0	6.9	6.8	6.7	6.6	6.5	6.5
Other current liabilities	41.4	41.4	41.4	41.4	41.4	41.4	41.4	41.4	41.4	41.4	41.4	41.4	41.4
Current liabilities	133.9	130.5	142.0	146.0	146.4	145.0	142.0	139.1	147.4	151.8	154.4	138.9	138.9
Long-term borrowings	121.1	119.7	118.3	116.9	115.4	114.0	112.6	111.2	109.8	108.4	107.0	105.6	105.6
Other non-current liabilities	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Non-current liabilities	121.1	119.7	118.3	116.9	115.4	114.0	112.6	111.2	109.8	108.4	107.0	105.6	105.6
Equity	400.9	403.5	409.6	416.9	424.3	431.4	437.7	443.1	451.0	460.3	470.4	475.9	475.9
Total liabilities and equity	655.9	653.7	669.8	679.7	686.2	690.5	692.3	693.4	708.2	720.5	731.8	720.4	720.4
Balance check (assets less liabilities and equity)	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9

NGN'm	2026Q1	2026Q2	2026Q3	2026Q4	Year
Cash and bank	112.0	125.2	137.2	175.0	175.0
Trade receivables	166.9	172.8	177.5	162.8	162.8
Inventory	103.2	106.9	109.8	100.7	100.7
Other current assets	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1
Current assets	385.2	407.8	427.5	441.6	441.6
Property, plant and equipment	285.5	283.5	281.6	279.7	279.7
Other non-current assets	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Non-current assets	285.5	283.5	281.6	279.7	279.7
Total assets	670.7	691.4	709.1	721.3	721.3
Trade payables	93.3	96.5	99.2	91.0	91.0
Short-term borrowings	7.3	7.1	6.8	6.5	6.5
Other current liabilities	41.4	41.4	41.4	41.4	41.4
Current liabilities	142.0	145.0	147.4	138.9	138.9
Long-term borrowings	118.3	114.0	109.8	105.6	105.6
Other non-current liabilities	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Non-current liabilities	118.3	114.0	109.8	105.6	105.6
Equity	409.6	431.4	451.0	475.9	475.9
Total liabilities and equity	669.8	690.5	708.2	720.4	720.4
Balance check (assets less liabilities and equity)	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9

NGN'm	2026	Year
Cash and bank	175.0	175.0
Trade receivables	162.8	162.8
Inventory	100.7	100.7
Other current assets	3.1	3.1
Current assets	441.6	441.6
Property, plant and equipment	279.7	279.7
Other non-current assets	0.0	0.0
Non-current assets	279.7	279.7
Total assets	721.3	721.3
Trade payables	91.0	91.0
Short-term borrowings	6.5	6.5
Other current liabilities	41.4	41.4
Current liabilities	138.9	138.9
Long-term borrowings	105.6	105.6
Other non-current liabilities	0.0	0.0
Non-current liabilities	105.6	105.6
Equity	475.9	475.9
Total liabilities and equity	720.4	720.4
Balance check (assets less liabilities and equity)	0.9	0.9

NGN'm	2026Jan	2026Feb	2026Mar	2026Apr	2026May	2026Jun	2026Jul	2026Aug	2026Sep	2026Oct	2026Nov	2026Dec	Year
Net income	3.6	2.6	6.1	7.3	7.5	7.1	6.3	5.4	7.9	9.3	10.1	5.5	78.6
Add back depreciation and amortisation	3.2	3.2	3.2	3.2	3.2	3.2	3.2	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	37.9
(Increase) / decrease in receivables	(8.6)	6.0	(20.7)	(7.4)	(0.9)	2.4	5.1	5.2	(15.1)	(8.0)	(4.9)	27.6	(19.2)
(Increase) / decrease in inventory	(1.1)	3.7	(12.8)	(4.6)	(0.6)	1.5	3.2	3.2	(9.3)	(5.0)	(3.0)	17.1	(7.7)
Increase / (decrease) in payables	(0.3)	(3.3)	11.6	4.1	0.5	(1.3)	(2.9)	(2.9)	8.4	4.5	2.7	(15.4)	5.6
Cash from operations	(3.2)	12.2	(12.7)	2.7	9.7	12.8	14.8	14.1	(4.9)	3.9	8.1	37.9	95.3
Capital expenditure	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(30.0)
Cash used in investing	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(30.0)
Net movement in borrowings	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(18.0)
Dividends paid	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cash from financing	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(18.0)
Net movement in cash	(7.2)	8.2	(16.7)	(1.3)	5.7	8.8	10.8	10.1	(8.9)	(0.1)	4.1	33.9	47.3
Cash at the start of the month	127.8	120.6	128.7	112.0	110.7	116.4	125.2	136.0	146.1	137.2	137.1	141.1	141.1
Cash at the end of the month	120.6	128.7	112.0	110.7	116.4	125.2	136.0	146.1	137.2	137.1	141.1	175.0	175.0

NGN'm	2026Q1	2026Q2	2026Q3	2026Q4	Year
Net income	12.3	21.9	19.6	24.9	78.6
Add back depreciation and amortisation	9.6	9.5	9.4	9.4	37.9
(Increase) / decrease in receivables	(23.3)	(5.9)	(4.8)	14.7	(19.2)
(Increase) / decrease in inventory	(10.2)	(3.6)	(2.9)	9.1	(7.7)
Increase / (decrease) in payables	7.9	3.3	2.7	(8.2)	5.6
Cash from operations	(3.8)	25.1	24.0	49.9	95.3
Capital expenditure	(7.5)	(7.5)	(7.5)	(7.5)	(30.0)
Cash used in investing	(7.5)	(7.5)	(7.5)	(7.5)	(30.0)
Net movement in borrowings	(4.5)	(4.5)	(4.5)	(4.5)	(18.0)
Dividends paid	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cash from financing	(4.5)	(4.5)	(4.5)	(4.5)	(18.0)
Net movement in cash	(15.8)	13.1	12.0	37.9	47.3
Cash at the start of the month	128.7	116.4	146.1	141.1	141.1
Cash at the end of the month	112.0	125.2	137.2	175.0	175.0

NGN'm	2026	Year
Net income	78.6	78.6
Add back depreciation and amortisation	37.9	37.9
(Increase) / decrease in receivables	(19.2)	(19.2)
(Increase) / decrease in inventory	(7.7)	(7.7)
Increase / (decrease) in payables	5.6	5.6
Cash from operations	95.3	95.3
Capital expenditure	(30.0)	(30.0)
Cash used in investing	(30.0)	(30.0)
Net movement in borrowings	(18.0)	(18.0)
Dividends paid	0.0	0.0
Cash from financing	(18.0)	(18.0)
Net movement in cash	47.3	47.3
Cash at the start of the month	141.1	141.1
Cash at the end of the month	175.0	175.0

FY2026 as built: revenue 1.8bn, EBITDA 164.5m at 9.3%, closing cash 175.0m.

Details

How this budget was built

seeded from	the trailing 3 month(s) of actuals
volume growth pct	5
price change pct	8
inflation pct	default: 10 opex personnel: 12 cogs: 6
seasonality	history_one_year
note	every line carries its own formula and inputs in budget_build.json; change the assumptions in intake.yaml and the whole statement rebuilds

Drivers and schedules behind these numbers

Drivers behind the income statement

Driver	2026Jan	2026Feb	2026Mar	2026Apr	2026May	2026Jun	2026Jul	2026Aug	2026Sep	2026Oct	2026Nov	2026Dec	Year
Applied inflation%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%
applied to finance income, fx gain loss, general and administrative, repairs and maintenance, selling and distribution, other operating income
Applied volume growth and inflation%	11.0%	11.0%	11.0%	11.0%	11.0%	11.0%	11.0%	11.0%	11.0%	11.0%	11.0%	11.0%	11.0%
applied to energy and fuel, direct labour, materials, other direct cost
RevenueNGN'm	132.3	127.1	145.1	151.5	152.3	150.2	145.8	141.2	154.4	161.3	165.5	141.5	1,768.3
Volumek units	63.3	60.8	69.4	72.5	72.8	71.8	69.7	67.5	73.8	77.1	79.2	67.7	845.5
Revenue per unitNGN'k	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1
Applied volume growth and price change%	13.0%	13.0%	13.0%	13.0%	13.0%	13.0%	13.0%	13.0%	13.0%	13.0%	13.0%	13.0%	13.0%
MaterialsNGN'm	77.3	74.3	84.8	88.6	89.0	87.8	85.2	82.6	90.2	94.3	96.8	82.7	1,033.7
Volumek units	63.3	60.8	69.4	72.5	72.8	71.8	69.7	67.5	73.8	77.1	79.2	67.7	845.5
Materials per unitNGN'k	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2
Direct labourNGN'm	9.1	8.7	9.9	10.4	10.4	10.3	10.0	9.7	10.6	11.1	11.4	9.7	121.2
HeadcountFTE	230.0	230.0	230.0	230.0	230.0	230.0	230.0	230.0	230.0	230.0	230.0	230.0	230.0
Volumek units	63.3	60.8	69.4	72.5	72.8	71.8	69.7	67.5	73.8	77.1	79.2	67.7	845.5
Direct labour per FTENGN'k	39.4	37.9	43.3	45.2	45.4	44.8	43.4	42.1	46.0	48.1	49.4	42.2	43.9
Direct labour per unitNGN	143.4	143.4	143.4	143.4	143.4	143.4	143.4	143.4	143.4	143.4	143.4	143.4	143.4
Energy and fuelNGN'm	7.7	7.4	8.5	8.9	8.9	8.8	8.5	8.3	9.0	9.4	9.7	8.3	103.4
Volumek units	63.3	60.8	69.4	72.5	72.8	71.8	69.7	67.5	73.8	77.1	79.2	67.7	845.5
Energy and fuel per unitNGN	122.2	122.2	122.2	122.2	122.2	122.2	122.2	122.2	122.2	122.2	122.2	122.2	122.2
Other direct costNGN'm	1.5	1.5	1.7	1.8	1.8	1.7	1.7	1.6	1.8	1.9	1.9	1.6	20.6
Volumek units	63.3	60.8	69.4	72.5	72.8	71.8	69.7	67.5	73.8	77.1	79.2	67.7	845.5
Other direct cost per unitNGN	24.3	24.3	24.3	24.3	24.3	24.3	24.3	24.3	24.3	24.3	24.3	24.3	24.3
PersonnelNGN'm	12.7	12.7	12.7	12.7	12.7	12.7	12.7	12.7	12.7	12.7	12.7	12.7	152.9
HeadcountFTE	230.0	230.0	230.0	230.0	230.0	230.0	230.0	230.0	230.0	230.0	230.0	230.0	230.0
Personnel per FTENGN'k	55.4	55.4	55.4	55.4	55.4	55.4	55.4	55.4	55.4	55.4	55.4	55.4	55.4
Applied inflation%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%
Other operating expensesNGN'm	0.6	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.8	0.8	0.7	8.3
Share of revenue%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%

Supporting schedules

Working capital

Line	2026Jan	2026Feb	2026Mar	2026Apr	2026May	2026Jun	2026Jul	2026Aug	2026Sep	2026Oct	2026Nov	2026Dec	Year
Trade receivables - daysdays	35.0	35.0	35.0	35.0	35.0	35.0	35.0	35.0	35.0	35.0	35.0	35.0	35.0
receivables / revenue x days in the period — derived from the client's own trailing actuals
Trade receivablesNGN'm	152.1	146.1	166.9	174.3	175.2	172.8	167.6	162.4	177.5	185.5	190.4	162.8	162.8
revenue / days in the month x dso_days — derived from the client's own trailing actuals
Inventory - daysdays	29.9	29.9	29.9	29.9	29.9	29.9	29.9	29.9	29.9	29.9	29.9	29.9	29.9
inventory / cost of sales x days in the period — derived from the client's own trailing actuals
InventoryNGN'm	94.1	90.4	103.2	107.8	108.4	106.9	103.7	100.5	109.8	114.8	117.8	100.7	100.7
cost of sales / days in the month x dio_days — derived from the client's own trailing actuals
Trade payables - daysdays	27.0	27.0	27.0	27.0	27.0	27.0	27.0	27.0	27.0	27.0	27.0	27.0	27.0
payables / cost of sales x days in the period — derived from the client's own trailing actuals
Trade payablesNGN'm	85.0	81.7	93.3	97.4	97.9	96.5	93.7	90.8	99.2	103.7	106.4	91.0	91.0
cost of sales / days in the month x dpo_days — derived from the client's own trailing actuals
Other current assetsNGN'm	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1
held at the last actual balance — held flat - no driver declared for this line
Other current liabilitiesNGN'm	41.4	41.4	41.4	41.4	41.4	41.4	41.4	41.4	41.4	41.4	41.4	41.4	41.4
held at the last actual balance — held flat - no driver declared for this line

Assets and depreciation

Line	2026Jan	2026Feb	2026Mar	2026Apr	2026May	2026Jun	2026Jul	2026Aug	2026Sep	2026Oct	2026Nov	2026Dec	Year
Opening net book valueNGN'm	287.6	286.9	286.2	285.5	284.8	284.2	283.5	282.9	282.2	281.6	280.9	280.3	280.3
the closing balance of the month before — the client's last reported fixed-asset balance
Capital expenditureNGN'm	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	30.0
capex_monthly from intake.yaml — supplied by the client
Remaining useful lifeyears	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5
net book value / annualised depreciation charge — derived from the client's own trailing actuals
Depreciation chargeNGN'm	3.2	3.2	3.2	3.2	3.2	3.2	3.2	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	37.9
opening net book value / useful life / 12 - straight line — derived from the client's own trailing actuals
Closing net book valueNGN'm	286.9	286.2	285.5	284.8	284.2	283.5	282.9	282.2	281.6	280.9	280.3	279.7	279.7
opening + capex - depreciation — derived from the client's own trailing actuals

Debt and finance cost

Line	2026Jan	2026Feb	2026Mar	2026Apr	2026May	2026Jun	2026Jul	2026Aug	2026Sep	2026Oct	2026Nov	2026Dec	Year
Opening borrowingsNGN'm	130.1	128.6	127.1	125.6	124.1	122.6	121.1	119.6	118.1	116.6	115.1	113.6	113.6
the closing balance of the month before — the client's last reported borrowings
RepaymentsNGN'm	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(18.0)
debt_repayment_monthly from intake.yaml — supplied by the client
Cost of debt%	12.7%	12.7%	12.7%	12.7%	12.7%	12.7%	12.7%	12.7%	12.7%	12.7%	12.7%	12.7%	12.7%
annualised finance cost / average borrowings — derived from the client's own trailing actuals
Finance costNGN'm	1.4	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	15.3
(opening + closing) / 2 x cost of debt / 12 — derived from the client's own trailing actuals
Closing borrowingsNGN'm	128.6	127.1	125.6	124.1	122.6	121.1	119.6	118.1	116.6	115.1	113.6	112.1	112.1
opening + drawdowns - repayments — derived from the client's own trailing actuals

Tax

Line	2026Jan	2026Feb	2026Mar	2026Apr	2026May	2026Jun	2026Jul	2026Aug	2026Sep	2026Oct	2026Nov	2026Dec	Year
Corporate tax rate%	30.0%	30.0%	30.0%	30.0%	30.0%	30.0%	30.0%	30.0%	30.0%	30.0%	30.0%	30.0%	30.0%
supplied per jurisdiction, else tax charged / profit before tax over the trailing year — the statutory rate for NG, supplied by the client in intake.yaml
Income taxNGN'm	1.5	1.1	2.6	3.1	3.2	3.0	2.7	2.3	3.4	4.0	4.3	2.4	33.7
max(0, profit before tax) x corporate tax rate — the statutory rate for NG, supplied by the client in intake.yaml

Equity and retained earnings

Line	2026Jan	2026Feb	2026Mar	2026Apr	2026May	2026Jun	2026Jul	2026Aug	2026Sep	2026Oct	2026Nov	2026Dec	Year
Opening equityNGN'm	397.3	400.9	403.5	409.6	416.9	424.3	431.4	437.7	443.1	451.0	460.3	470.4	470.4
the closing balance of the month before — the client's last reported equity
Retained for the monthNGN'm	3.6	2.6	6.1	7.3	7.5	7.1	6.3	5.4	7.9	9.3	10.1	5.5	78.6
net income - dividends — no dividend assumption supplied, so the budget retains everything
Closing equityNGN'm	400.9	403.5	409.6	416.9	424.3	431.4	437.7	443.1	451.0	460.3	470.4	475.9	475.9

ScenarioEBITDA for a price move (rows) and a volume move (columns)

Step %two steps either way

Average price per unit ↓ / Volume →

-10%

-5%

base

+5%

+10%

-10%

-43.6m

-28.0m

-12.3m

3.3m

18.9m

-5%

36.0m

56.0m

76.1m

96.1m

116.2m

base

115.5m

140.0m

164.5m

189.0m

213.4m

+5%

195.1m

224.0m

252.9m

281.8m

310.7m

+10%

274.7m

308.0m

341.3m

374.6m

407.9m

Both drivers +10% would add 243.5m to FY2026 budgeted EBITDA of 164.5m; base case outlined.

Details

How the grid is computed

formula	EBITDA + revenue x (p + v + p x v) - variable cost x v, over the last twelve months (p, v as fractions)
inputs	ebitda 12m: 164.5m revenue 12m: 1.8bn variable cost 12m: 1.3bn variable lines: cogs_materials\|cogs_labour\|cogs_energy\|cogs_other mode: price x volume, exact
base case	164.5m
note	the same proportional arithmetic as the bridge and the driver tree; not the simulation - no volatility, no correlation, no seasonality

Table view

Average price per unit ↓ / Volume →	-10%	-5%	base	+5%	+10%
-10%	-43.6m	-28.0m	-12.3m	3.3m	18.9m
-5%	36.0m	56.0m	76.1m	96.1m	116.2m
base	115.5m	140.0m	164.5m	189.0m	213.4m
+5%	195.1m	224.0m	252.9m	281.8m	310.7m
+10%	274.7m	308.0m	341.3m	374.6m	407.9m

Closing cash outlookP10 / P50 / P90

P50 cash ends the year at 204.6m; 0% chance of breaching minimum_cash in any month.

Details

cash 2026-01-31

p10	129.6m
p50	142.2m
p90	152.9m
method	seeded simulation of driver log-changes, zero drift
simulations	5.0k
seasonality	history_one_year
calibration	revenue: 1 cogs: 1 opex: 1 ebitda: 1 cash: 1

cash 2026-02-28

p10	135.3m
p50	151.0m
p90	164.4m
method	seeded simulation of driver log-changes, zero drift
simulations	5.0k
seasonality	history_one_year
calibration	revenue: 1 cogs: 1 opex: 1 ebitda: 1 cash: 1

cash 2026-03-31

p10	117.0m
p50	137.7m
p90	155.2m
method	seeded simulation of driver log-changes, zero drift
simulations	5.0k
seasonality	history_one_year
calibration	revenue: 1 cogs: 1 opex: 1 ebitda: 1 cash: 1

cash 2026-04-30

p10	113.4m
p50	137.8m
p90	158.2m
method	seeded simulation of driver log-changes, zero drift
simulations	5.0k
seasonality	history_one_year
calibration	revenue: 1 cogs: 1 opex: 1 ebitda: 1 cash: 1

cash 2026-05-31

p10	116.8m
p50	143.8m
p90	167.6m
method	seeded simulation of driver log-changes, zero drift
simulations	5.0k
seasonality	history_one_year
calibration	revenue: 1 cogs: 1 opex: 1 ebitda: 1 cash: 1

cash 2026-06-30

p10	122.8m
p50	153.1m
p90	180.4m
method	seeded simulation of driver log-changes, zero drift
simulations	5.0k
seasonality	history_one_year
calibration	revenue: 1 cogs: 1 opex: 1 ebitda: 1 cash: 1

cash 2026-07-31

p10	128.9m
p50	164.5m
p90	195.2m
method	seeded simulation of driver log-changes, zero drift
simulations	5.0k
seasonality	history_one_year
calibration	revenue: 1 cogs: 1 opex: 1 ebitda: 1 cash: 1

cash 2026-08-31

p10	133.5m
p50	174.4m
p90	210.0m
method	seeded simulation of driver log-changes, zero drift
simulations	5.0k
seasonality	history_one_year
calibration	revenue: 1 cogs: 1 opex: 1 ebitda: 1 cash: 1

cash 2026-09-30

p10	118.5m
p50	167.7m
p90	210.8m
method	seeded simulation of driver log-changes, zero drift
simulations	5.0k
seasonality	history_one_year
calibration	revenue: 1 cogs: 1 opex: 1 ebitda: 1 cash: 1

cash 2026-10-31

p10	112.1m
p50	169.1m
p90	219.6m
method	seeded simulation of driver log-changes, zero drift
simulations	5.0k
seasonality	history_one_year
calibration	revenue: 1 cogs: 1 opex: 1 ebitda: 1 cash: 1

cash 2026-11-30

p10	109.2m
p50	173.9m
p90	231.6m
method	seeded simulation of driver log-changes, zero drift
simulations	5.0k
seasonality	history_one_year
calibration	revenue: 1 cogs: 1 opex: 1 ebitda: 1 cash: 1

cash 2026-12-31

p10	133.1m
p50	204.6m
p90	272.5m
method	seeded simulation of driver log-changes, zero drift
simulations	5.0k
seasonality	history_one_year
calibration	revenue: 1 cogs: 1 opex: 1 ebitda: 1 cash: 1

Table view

Month	P10	P50	P90
2026-01	129.6m	142.2m	152.9m
2026-02	135.3m	151.0m	164.4m
2026-03	117.0m	137.7m	155.2m
2026-04	113.4m	137.8m	158.2m
2026-05	116.8m	143.8m	167.6m
2026-06	122.8m	153.1m	180.4m
2026-07	128.9m	164.5m	195.2m
2026-08	133.5m	174.4m	210.0m
2026-09	118.5m	167.7m	210.8m
2026-10	112.1m	169.1m	219.6m
2026-11	109.2m	173.9m	231.6m
2026-12	133.1m	204.6m	272.5m

Decisions

#	Action	Expected EBITDA impact (NGN, 12m)	Effort	Owner
1	Close the volume shortfall against budget on Revenue: NGN 187,124,127 of revenue	18.7m-56.1m	high	Sales
2	Test a 1% price move on the highest-leverage driver, Average price per unit: worth NGN 1,248,115 of EBITDA a month	7.5m-15.0m	medium	Sales
3	Renegotiate or re-source Cost of sales - materials: the unit cost ran NGN 23,212,874 above budget over the period	5.8m-11.6m	medium	Procurement
4	Reduce the official-versus-effective FX gap on Cost of sales - materials: NGN 20,211,435 was paid above the official rate	4.0m-10.1m	high	Treasury

4 actions worth 36.0m to 92.8m a year; #1 is Sales's.

Details

Close the volume shortfall against budget on Revenue: NGN 187,124,127 of revenue

driver	unit_volume
owner	Sales
expected impact	low: 18.7m high: 56.1m unit: NGN basis: 10%-30% of the annualised adverse variance recovered horizon: 12 months mid: 37.4m
effort	high
time to effect days	90
assumption	the shortfall is demand or execution, not capacity; the budget volume was achievable
measurement	monthly volume in the operational upload against the budget volume, over the next three months
evidence	source: bridge comparison: budget component: volume line: revenue adverse variance: 187.1m months: 12 annualised: 187.1m share of adverse variance: 0.807

Test a 1% price move on the highest-leverage driver, Average price per unit: worth NGN 1,248,115 of EBITDA a month

driver	average_price
owner	Sales
expected impact	low: 7.5m high: 15.0m unit: NGN basis: 50%-100% of a 1% move, sustained for a year horizon: 12 months mid: 11.2m
effort	medium
time to effect days	45
assumption	volume does not fall by more than the price gain; to be tested on one segment first
measurement	average price per unit and volume in the operational upload, next three months, against the trailing three
evidence	source: driver_tree driver: average_price ebitda per 1pct month: 1.2m rank: 1
cash impact	first month: -187.2k monthly after: 1.2m

Renegotiate or re-source Cost of sales - materials: the unit cost ran NGN 23,212,874 above budget over the period

driver	cogs_ratio
owner	Procurement
expected impact	low: 5.8m high: 11.6m unit: NGN basis: 25%-50% of the annualised adverse variance recovered horizon: 12 months mid: 8.7m
effort	medium
time to effect days	60
assumption	the adverse unit cost is a supplier price effect, not a change in specification or quality
measurement	Cost of sales - materials per unit of output in the next three months' trial balances, against the budget unit cost
evidence	source: bridge comparison: budget component: unit_cost line: cogs_materials adverse variance: 23.2m months: 12 annualised: 23.2m share of adverse variance: 0.1

Reduce the official-versus-effective FX gap on Cost of sales - materials: NGN 20,211,435 was paid above the official rate

driver	fx_effective_rate
owner	Treasury
expected impact	low: 4.0m high: 10.1m unit: NGN basis: 20%-50% of the annualised adverse variance recovered horizon: 12 months mid: 7.1m
effort	high
time to effect days	90
assumption	a larger share of the currency need can be met at or near the official rate through documented import channels
measurement	fx_gap component of the bridge for Cost of sales - materials, month by month, against the period average
evidence	source: bridge comparison: budget component: fx_gap line: cogs_materials adverse variance: 20.2m months: 12 annualised: 20.2m share of adverse variance: 0.087

Table view

#	Action	Low	High	Effort	Owner	Days	Assumption	How we will know
1	Close the volume shortfall against budget on Revenue: NGN 187,124,127 of revenue	18.7m	56.1m	high	Sales	90.0	the shortfall is demand or execution, not capacity; the budget volume was achievable	monthly volume in the operational upload against the budget volume, over the next three months
2	Test a 1% price move on the highest-leverage driver, Average price per unit: worth NGN 1,248,115 of EBITDA a month	7.5m	15.0m	medium	Sales	45.0	volume does not fall by more than the price gain; to be tested on one segment first	average price per unit and volume in the operational upload, next three months, against the trailing three
3	Renegotiate or re-source Cost of sales - materials: the unit cost ran NGN 23,212,874 above budget over the period	5.8m	11.6m	medium	Procurement	60.0	the adverse unit cost is a supplier price effect, not a change in specification or quality	Cost of sales - materials per unit of output in the next three months' trial balances, against the budget unit cost
4	Reduce the official-versus-effective FX gap on Cost of sales - materials: NGN 20,211,435 was paid above the official rate	4.0m	10.1m	high	Treasury	90.0	a larger share of the currency need can be met at or near the official rate through documented import channels	fx_gap component of the bridge for Cost of sales - materials, month by month, against the period average

Figures derive solely from the files you uploaded and carry their formula in the run record. Operational analysis only - not advice on investments, tax or legal matters. Amounts in NGN.